Energy Market Research

Societe Generale analysts cut their forecast for global oil demand growth in 2017 to 1.32 million barrels per day (bpd) from the 1.4 million bpd estimated in mid-March, according to an April 21 report led by Michael Wittner, the head of oil market research at the bank. Societe Generale raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth to 810,000 bpd from 600,000 bpd. The bank expects OPEC to hold its production at around 32 million bpd for the rest of the year as it expects OPEC to roll over its current production target into the second half of the year. The issue of high crude and product inventories in the OECD countries, which many believe is behind the market imbalance, is expected to ease.
Goldman Sachs
The US bank sees last week’s slide in crude prices as driven by technical factors and not market fundamentals, the bank’s analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie said in a note on April 21. The bank said that there is no fundamental evidence in the oil market to justify last week’s selloff. The midweek price slide was driven by crude trading through 50-day and 100-day moving averages rather than fundamentals. As for the fundamentals, the bank said the pace of declines in the US crude inventories is encouraging.
Citi
The bank’s analysts including Ed Morse and Seth Kleinman said in a note on April 18 that they see sizable inventory draws, as cuts in production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries should outweigh higher US production. The cuts should overshadow the US response in the next six to nine months, leading to markets tightening through 2017. “Now, the market is likely set for a hefty inventory draw and Brent at above $60,” the bank said.
Barclays
The bank’s equity analysts including Thomas Driscoll said in a note on April 21 that they had cut the WTI oil-price forecast by $5 a barrel in 2018 to $60 on concern that US oil supply will keep growing. The bank also lowered its forecast for Brent in 2018 to $62 a barrel, down from $67. Barclays expects US oil output to rise by more than 1 million bpd by the end of the year.

Source: Arab News