How does the oil industry view the rise of electrical cars, the price of crude, and the prospect of extending production cuts?
All these questions were asked in an audience poll at the S&P Global Platts APPEC conference in Singapore last week.
The audience included top officials at state-owned oil companies, traders from the world’s biggest trading houses, top refiners, and established research houses. They are the people who produce, sell, market, and trade oil in the world.
Starting with oil prices, the majority of participants (68 percent) saw Brent oil prices trading at between $50 and $60 by September next year, Bloomberg reported. Only 5 percent of the people who voted saw prices at between $60 and $70, and another 5 percent believed oil could trade above $70.
Turning to electrical vehicles (EVs), the industry is seeing a split on the extent of expansion of these cars in the coming few years.
Only 44 percent of the industry estimates that EVs will make up less than 5 percent of new car sales in the world in 2025, whereas 33 percent think it will be at 5-15 percent, and 22 percent of them thought that the percentage will be higher than this at 15 to 25 percent.
The good news is that no one believed it will exceed 25 percent in eight years.
The poll included many other important issues such as the current deal of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with non-OPEC countries.
Almost four out of five expected that the deal will be extended beyond it expiry in March next year at the current level of cuts.
Just under a quarter believed that the cuts will not be extended, and none believed that would be extended under a condition that the size of the cuts would be increased.
Staying with OPEC, in a recorded video address to the APPEC conference on the opening day, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo projected that crude exports from the Middle East to Asia would rise from 14.5 million barrels per day in 2016 to 22 million bpd in 2040.
“Expansion at these levels from the fast-growing economies in Asia will require supplies from all producing regions and OPEC member countries will surely play an important part in helping meet these increasing needs,” he said from the OPEC secretariat in Vienna.
“For the foreseeable future, we can count on the Asia-Pacific (region) to be the primary outlet for OPEC and Middle Eastern export barrels.”
With Asia expected to contribute some 70 percent of global demand growth in the coming years, Barkindo said his organization welcomes more opportunities to engage with buyers from the region.

Source:Arabnews