Scientists say they have developed a better way to predict how animal diseases can spill over into humans. Their model for Lassa fever, which is spread by rats, predicts that there will be twice as many human cases of the disease in Africa by 2070. 

    The method can be applied to other disease threats such as Ebola and Zika, they say. Like the Ebola virus, the Lassa virus causes haemorrhagic fever and can be fatal.  Lassa fever virus currently affects between 100,000 and one million people a year in western sub-Saharan Africa.  A rat found in parts of the continent can pass the virus to people. 

    Scientists led by Prof Kate Jones of the Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research at UCL looked at about 400 known outbreaks of Lassa fever between 1967 and 2012, according to the (BBC).     They developed a model to calculate how often people are likely to come into contact with disease-carrying animals and the risk of the virus spilling over.

    It shows more areas of West Africa are at risk from Lassa fever spill-over events than previously thought. The projected increase in cases is largely due to climate change, with the rat that passes it to people thriving in hot and wet conditions, they say.

Source: QNA