Hamas and Israel could face another war

Both Hamas and Israel stressed that they do not aspire to more conflicts during the current period, while senior officials of Israeli army expressed their concern over any potential mistake that could fuel a new war.

Qatar’s crisis

Hamas depended on the tiny Gulf state to resolve the fuel shortage during the recent years. Qatar has supported Hamas financially over the last decade and pledged some $1.5 billion since 2012 to build roads, houses, schools and clinics in Gaza. It has for a long time also hosted exiled leaders of the group, such as Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Saleh al-Aruri, who is believed to be behind the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers that led to Operation Protective Edge in 2014. If Qatar continues to reduce its support for Hamas, the group may try to show its relevance by attacking Israel.

Hamas’ internal problems                             

The Palestinian movement managed to divert attention from the internal issues through its wars against Israel. Gaza’s water utility company has warned that when the power is off, it also lacks fuel and cannot run water and sanitation facilities. There is also a skyrocketing unemployment rate, especially among youth, creating an even more urgent humanitarian situation. One of Hamas’ primary fears is that the people of Gaza will one day rise up and lead to its fall from power and to the return of the Palestinian Authority to control of the Strip.

Peace talks renewal

Both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have traded blame for the fuel crisis. The PA claims that Hamas officials are not running the plant efficiently and Hamas says it cannot afford to buy more fuel and operate the plant because of high taxes imposed by the PA. Hamas may want to renew rocket attacks to remind the world that they are still around and still a relevant player in the region. While there has been sporadic rocket fire from smaller Salafi jihadist groups that are challenging Hamas’s rule, the group itself has not fired a rocket from Gaza since the 2014 conflict with Israel. But Hamas has done so in the past when it felt backed into a corner. If rocket attacks renew and Israel responds, we could find ourselves in an escalation.

New leader

In February, Hamas elected Yayha Sinwar, a ruthless hard-liner from its armed wing as its leader in the Gaza Strip. His election showed that Hamas’s military wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigade, now holds more sway than the political leadership. Regarded by Israeli security officials as one of the most uncompromising leaders of Hamas, Sinwar rejects any reconciliation with Israel. His ascendancy to power has escalated fears that Israel and the group may be heading towards yet another deadly conflict.

A miscalculation by either side

Statistics from the last decade indicate that a conflict between Israel and Hamas takes place roughly every three years, and seemingly during the summer time. While such retrospective data are not predictive, when the temperature and tempers rise and both sides are primed for fighting, any development and any miscalculation can trigger war.