is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us
Tuesday 18 March 2025
Last Updated : GMT 09:40:38
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

Is the collapse of the Iranian regime better for us?

Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us

Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid

To start with, it should not be understood from this analysis that the Iranian regime is crumbling and about to collapse. The truth is that the regime in Tehran is strong in its structures and apparatus, and it represents a strong sector that cannot be easily removed by demonstrations. However, the importance of the current popular dynamic in Iran, which took us by surprise again as it did in 2009, is that it could be a conducive factor leading to partial or total change in the future.
But before discussing the implications of the popular dynamic on our region, we must discuss its effects on Iran and its regime which would of course affect us. There are many possibilities. First, that the security forces will be able to suppress the demonstrations as they did eight years ago, without hesitating to kill unarmed protesters in front of mobile cameras. Second, that the regime will offer some concessions to absorb the crisis, such as dismissing President Hassan Rouhani and his government while continuing to suppress the uprising. The third possibility is that the demonstrations might become larger and more violent, benefiting from disputes between internal forces in the regime — such as the dispute between the Revolutionary Guards and the regular army over which will dominate the system. The fourth possibility, which is quite unlikely, would be the total collapse of the regime, turning the situation in Iran into one similar to those in Libya and Syria.
Overall, the disturbances in Tehran have been painful and have shaken the confidence in the regime of most Iranians and the outside world. Therefore, the regime is obliged to reconsider its position even if it manages to quell the demonstrations in the next few days. The recent speech by President Rouhani indicated that the government had to listen to its people. However, in case the third or fourth possibilities occur, there would be serious internal and regional consequences arising from the collapse of the regime.
As far as we — and I mean the states in the region — are concerned, the ideal situation would be the continuation of the present regime but with a change in its foreign policies and an end to its hostile projects. This view may seem strange, but the justification is that the region is already suffering from a great deal of destruction and cannot afford new chaos, additional civil wars, and many more refugees. But if the popular Iranian uprising succeeds in changing Iranian foreign policies and ending its foreign operations, and forces the regime to focus instead on internal reform and development, this would be the ideal option compared with the frightening scenario if the regime were to collapse.
The defect of this hypothesis is that the nature of the Iranian regime is not civil and, hence, is incapable of changing itself. Rather, the regime is theological and relies on force. In other words, it is a fascist theological regime. Therefore, it would be quite hard for it to reform its thoughts and views of the world. This is a question the supreme leadership of Iran, which must be in permanent session due to the dangerous developments, needs to discuss.
Should the regime weather the crisis and benefit from its lessons, it may survive. However, if it insists on confronting the demonstrators with bullets, and possibly with scapegoats to satisfy the angry crowds, more popular explosions cannot be ruled out in the future. The leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, together with the supreme theological leadership, are apparently arrogant. They think that they can expand the republic and make it a regional empire, geographically occupying some regional states, competing with international powers and threatening their interests in the Middle East, seeking to besiege Saudi Arabia and threaten Israel, and fighting multiple simultaneous wars. This is the way arrogant people think, ignoring the limits of Iranian power in a country whose people are suffering, and which is considered to have one of the poorest regional economies.

 

GMT 09:55 2018 Tuesday ,23 January

Washington chooses Syria as its battleground

GMT 09:52 2018 Tuesday ,23 January

Road ahead full of danger as new front opens in Syria

GMT 09:43 2018 Tuesday ,23 January

Now is the time to revive King’s beautiful struggle

GMT 09:15 2018 Monday ,22 January

US Syria policy leaves many questions unanswered

GMT 09:09 2018 Monday ,22 January

Spend a dollar, save a life

GMT 10:23 2018 Thursday ,18 January

65 Israeli laws that discriminate against non-Jews

GMT 09:52 2018 Thursday ,18 January

The dangerous entanglements of Idlib and Afrin
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us

 



Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

GMT 11:22 2016 Saturday ,30 July

Harry Potter play hits London stage

GMT 11:06 2017 Monday ,10 April

Five Things We Have Learned From The Masters

GMT 07:52 2017 Sunday ,17 December

EU, OIC hold high-level meeting

GMT 12:54 2016 Saturday ,10 December

Stones roll back the years with chart-topping album

GMT 09:56 2017 Friday ,27 January

Tackling migration from Libya "crucial"

GMT 08:59 2017 Monday ,13 November

HM King thanked by Singapore president

GMT 09:27 2014 Saturday ,19 July

The circle of chaos

GMT 09:37 2017 Monday ,30 January

Iran's Oscar-winning director to skip awards

GMT 11:14 2012 Friday ,09 March

India on diplomatic tightrope

GMT 13:09 2012 Wednesday ,14 March

Saudi to cover oil shortfall

GMT 14:48 2017 Tuesday ,25 July

10 Afghan media workers killed in half year

GMT 12:18 2016 Tuesday ,29 November

England's scrum is the problem

GMT 13:27 2018 Saturday ,06 January

Eleven injured as stadium barrier collapses

GMT 19:52 2017 Tuesday ,21 November

Mugabe resigns for ‘smooth transfer of power’

GMT 09:34 2018 Tuesday ,02 January

Iranian Revolutionary guards officers lead insurgency

GMT 07:46 2017 Thursday ,12 October

IMF chief urges more support for global trade
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
 
 Themuslimchronicle Facebook,themuslimchronicle facebook  Themuslimchronicle Twitter,themuslimchronicle twitter Themuslimchronicle Rss,themuslimchronicle rss  Themuslimchronicle Youtube,themuslimchronicle youtube  Themuslimchronicle Youtube,themuslimchronicle youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2025 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2025 ©

muslimchronicle muslimchronicle muslimchronicle muslimchronicle
themuslimchronicle themuslimchronicle themuslimchronicle
themuslimchronicle
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle