theresa may’s triple bet
Last Updated : GMT 09:40:38
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Last Updated : GMT 09:40:38
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

Theresa May’s triple bet

Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

theresa may’s triple bet

Dominique Moisi

Just after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech, in which she outlined her government’s objectives in the upcoming negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, one well-known expert and political commentator, who once worked at 10 Downing Street, was positively impressed. “You cannot speak of ‘Perfidious Albion’ any longer,” he told me when I met him in a London club. “Theresa May has been crystal clear: Brexit means exit.”
My interlocutor had voted in last June’s Brexit referendum to remain in the EU, but like much of the country, he welcomed May’s speech. “If you search for an image to describe today’s Great Britain, speak of a ‘defiant lion,’” he told me, before emphasizing three key points.
For starters, he said, the European model of integration is in crisis, and the EU has proved to be incapable of reforming itself. Leaving the bloc — not like a rat scurrying off a sinking ship, but with style — is proof of British realism. Moreover, there has always been a disconnect between the UK and the EU, because the project of European integration was presented as primarily economic, when it was, above all, political in nature. The EU single market, like the Eurostar railway that connects London to continental Europe, was not enough to turn Britons into Europeans.
Second, despite the obvious difficulties, a clean break with the EU is probably far simpler than negotiating a complex arrangement with the remaining 27 member states, especially if one’s priority is to keep the British Conservative Party unified and in power.
And, third, Great Britain does not take kindly to external pressure that feels like a threat. Some British observers might see May as a new Margaret Thatcher, but her Lancaster House speech was also reminiscent of Winston Churchill. Indeed, British citizens who are convinced that there are alternatives to Europe often refer to 1940 — “England’s finest hour.”
This précis of the British position is laudably frank. “Leave” voters obviously feel some imperial nostalgia. May, for her part, seems to be driven by domestic politics to prioritize national sovereignty over the economy. But while the UK is certainly a democracy, her argument to the British people is not unlike what Russian President Vladimir Putin tells his own citizens: No one lives by bread alone, and recovering sovereignty and national greatness is worth the economic risk.
But is May’s vision for the UK realistic, given the new international context? Can one still dream of being a New Athens when there is a New Rome, lorded over by Donald Trump? Beyond her distrust of Europe, May has little in common with the new US president: She believes in free trade and is suspicious of Russia, while Trump is calling for protectionism and wants to forge a special partnership with Putin.
May and Trump also have markedly different personalities. The warm, optimistic former Hollywood actor Ronald Reagan and Thatcher the Iron Lady got along very well through mutual empathy and a shared strategic vision of the world. But such a rapport between the mercurial American reality-TV star and the austere British prime minister is almost unthinkable.
One can always wonder if things would be different had the American election preceded the Brexit referendum. Would British voters still have risked saying “no” to Europe had Trump already won? To be sure, history cannot be rewritten; but many of those who voted to remain in the EU now worry that May has succumbed to wishful thinking about the future.
Of course, it is not particularly helpful to describe May’s exit plan as “hard” or “soft,” because the latter option, it is now clear, was never really possible. And yet, while May’s speech initially seemed to eliminate any remaining ambiguity about the UK’s goal in the upcoming process, the British Supreme Court has now ruled that she must consult Parliament before entering into negotiations with the EU.
After World War II, Churchill encouraged Europeans to unite, but he also said that if the UK had to choose between the trans-Atlantic relationship and Europe, it would always pick the former. At that time, the US-led Western alignment was the center of Churchill’s world, and China was mired in civil war.
But that is no longer the case. China is increasingly a US rival, and now that the UK has decided to go it alone, there is no guarantee that the US will take it seriously. With Trump openly questioning NATO’s relevance, this seems like an inopportune moment for the UK to play the “splendid isolation” card. For reasons strictly concerning national identity, May is making a triple bet: On the UK, the US, and the world.
May seems to be assuming that the Commonwealth of Nations and other multilateral economic bodies can substitute for the EU, and that Trump, like British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, will end up being a rational statesman who simply cannot control his words. She has denounced globalization for its harsh social consequences, but a UK that is no longer in the EU will be all the more reliant on exchange with other countries. Meanwhile, the rise of populism and the geopolitical risks introduced by Trump’s presidency will not be mere historical footnotes, and could mark the end of globalization as we know it.
After Brexit and Trump’s election, one certainty is that the relationship between France and Germany will be more important than ever for the preservation of the geopolitical West. And with voters in both countries — particularly in France — confronting the temptation of populist nationalism as they head to the polls this year, that relationship, too, now hangs in the balance.

 

GMT 09:55 2018 Tuesday ,23 January

Washington chooses Syria as its battleground

GMT 09:52 2018 Tuesday ,23 January

Road ahead full of danger as new front opens in Syria

GMT 09:43 2018 Tuesday ,23 January

Now is the time to revive King’s beautiful struggle

GMT 09:15 2018 Monday ,22 January

US Syria policy leaves many questions unanswered

GMT 09:09 2018 Monday ,22 January

Spend a dollar, save a life

GMT 10:23 2018 Thursday ,18 January

65 Israeli laws that discriminate against non-Jews

GMT 09:52 2018 Thursday ,18 January

The dangerous entanglements of Idlib and Afrin
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

theresa may’s triple bet theresa may’s triple bet

 



Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle

GMT 06:40 2017 Saturday ,16 December

Walker needs brains not just brawn

GMT 08:15 2017 Thursday ,07 September

US oil giant ExxonMobil plans Cyprus gas exploration

GMT 18:11 2011 Monday ,18 April

Zimbabwe and Zambia in tug of war over Vic Falls

GMT 16:05 2017 Tuesday ,31 October

Qadih calls for involving private sector

GMT 09:20 2017 Wednesday ,15 November

Qualcomm spurns $130 bn Broadcom bid for big tech tie-up

GMT 13:43 2017 Tuesday ,24 October

Stabbed Russian journalist 'in recovery'

GMT 10:26 2017 Friday ,14 April

Sock topples Haas to reach ATP Houston quarters

GMT 14:00 2017 Saturday ,25 November

Sudan condemns terrorist attack in Egypt

GMT 09:40 2017 Monday ,04 December

Stade down Racing, Clermont edge plucky Agen

GMT 08:08 2017 Thursday ,05 October

Injury jinx strikes again as Iordache exits

GMT 11:20 2017 Tuesday ,05 December

Prodigal son: Saleh Saudi overture tips Yemen balance

GMT 09:35 2013 Saturday ,31 August

Afghan suicide attack kills 6, hurts 20 in south

GMT 23:36 2016 Sunday ,11 December

Suicide attack in Istanbul claims 29 lives

GMT 18:29 2013 Sunday ,10 November

Samsung\'s Galaxy Note 3 top 5m

GMT 14:52 2013 Sunday ,24 November

Computer game opponents begin to think, feel alike
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
Themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle
 
 Themuslimchronicle Facebook,themuslimchronicle facebook  Themuslimchronicle Twitter,themuslimchronicle twitter Themuslimchronicle Rss,themuslimchronicle rss  Themuslimchronicle Youtube,themuslimchronicle youtube  Themuslimchronicle Youtube,themuslimchronicle youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2023 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2023 ©

muslimchronicle muslimchronicle muslimchronicle muslimchronicle
themuslimchronicle themuslimchronicle themuslimchronicle
themuslimchronicle
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle, themuslimchronicle