Bouteflika's last year in office: Will he be transformed?

Algeria has started preparing for life post-Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, whose terms ends in a year or a little more. Presidential elections will definitely take place next year in Algeria, where Bouteflika was elected for a third five-year terms in April 2009. Age and health may cause him not to stand for a fourth term, which is not to say that Bouteflika wouldn't want to remain in power if it was feasible. But to want is one thing, to be able is quite another. And, at any rate, all our lives are in God's hands. It isn't unlikely for the Algerian president—who has occupied the presidential palace in Algiers since 1999—to seek to retain office. Those who have met with him recently say his health has improved in comparison with his condition in recent years, and that his mind is extremely alert. This, however, shouldn't stop us thinking of who will succeed the man and whether there is an Algerian figure that could fill the shoes of a historic character who has been present in public life, in one or another, since the country gained its independence in 1962. Bouteflika has been subject for discussion in recent days because he mustered the courage to speak up about the threat that events in Mali pose to his country's security. This was the first time that Bouteflika has touched upon regional security and underlined the need to combat terrorism from a wide angle that covers more than just Algerian territories. To speak plainly, the Algerian president referred to the need for regional—even international—cooperation in combating the phenomenon of terror, a shift from the Algerian policy based on fighting the phenomenon within national borders only. Terror in the region, however—including the role played by the Polisario Front—is considered to be good for Algeria because it hurt neighbouring countries, especially Morocco. So are we facing a new Bouteflika in the last year of his third (and, presumably, last) term? This is a very difficult question to answer if we take recent experience into account. This experience reveal two things: Firstly, that Bouteflika's main concern has always been limited to what Algerians will say about him. He has never once been able to lead the masses rather than be led by them. This has meant that he has never taken a single bold step in any area, be it on the regional, European or international stage. For instance, Algeria remains one of only a handful of Arab countries that support the Syrian regime and back it in international and Arab gatherings, despite it doing nothing but kill its own people. Secondly, Bouteflika is still a prisoner of the Morocco complex, as evidenced by his inability to alter Algerian policy in this regard and insistence on maintaining the borders between the two countries closed despite King Mohammed VI's repeated calls for talks to end the issue that has persisted since 1994. Looking Algerian attitude to the Syrian regime and the issues of the borders with Morocco and Western Sahara, we find it impossible to guess whether Bouteflika will take the dramatic measure of admitting that security in Northern Africa and the Sahel-Sahara region is indivisible. Even more crucial is admitting that security in this area—which includes Algerian security—requires cooperation between the two regional powers, Algeria and Morocco. Moreover, Morccan-Algerian cooperation apart from empty slogans of the likes of "Sahrawis have the right of self-determination," will safeguard the region from the foreign interference brought on by a policy which prioritises inflicting harm on others, even if Algeria is also harmed in the process. Time has revealed that these policies were a sign of Bouteflika's short- rather than long-sightedness. At the end of the day, however, is it the military-security collective that sets Algeria's policies or the president? It is quite well-known that the military excluded Bouteflika in 1979 and stoppered his bid to succeed Huari Boumedienne. At the time, the military's alighted on one of their own: Colonel Chadli Benjadid. In 1999, the military opted for Bouteflika and set up the scenario that would secure his ascension to the presidency. Nothing has changed nor will change in Algeria unless Bouteflika decided to use the last year of his third term and the war raging in Mali to tell the military and senior security officers that a new policy is inevitable. This change was made necessary by the French intervention in Mali, as the war is shaping up to be a long one; dramatic changes in both Tunisia and Libya; the increasing number of terrorist strongholds in the Sahel-Sahara region and the assurance that these centres are linked to the Polisario Front, itself an Algerian creation. Will Abdel Aziz Bouteflika transform himself into a statesman of stature in the Arab world and North Africa, or will he bask in the personal vengeance he exacted with his election for the presidency by the military in 1999 after the same establishment had excluded him in 1979? It is a clear-cat choice based on the ability to build on words to the effect that Algeria's security will be affected by goings-on in Mali and the region instead of making statements that are not translated into reality. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.