The new formula of Hezbollah's government in Lebanon

Some voices in Lebanon have been talking recently about the collapse of the Lebanese state along with its institutions and returning back to the days of civil war and street militias. Others have been talking openly about isolating Lebanon and converting it to an Iranian colony and an extension for the Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian axe. Those two messages were the main conclusions understood by the people who realised how serious the latest events that took place in Beirut and other Lebanese regions are. These events included threatening Turkish an Arab Gulf citizens in Lebanon (including the Turkish unit working in the UNIFIL peacekeeping force), closing the airport highway for sometime, kidnapping Syrian and Turkish citizens and the sudden emergence of a "military wing" for one of the Lebanese clans. Taking all these complications into regard, we can brief the whole situation in Lebanon saying that the Syrian regime is trying everything possible to create massive turmoil in the small country of Lebanon, as this regime believes that such turmoil will ease the pressure exerted on it within Syria itself. It is also clear that Hezbollah which acts as a brigade within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is providing aid for the Syrian regime in creating that turmoil through its indirect agents in Lebanon. It could be said that Hezbollah is working on applying a new formula in the country  based on keeping Najib Mikati's government in charge (could probably be called Hezbollah's government), and pushing the country into turmoil at the same time. Is that formula a possible one to apply? Is it viable? Taking into consideration that according to this formula, Mikati's government is supposed to show no action while it watches the Syrian and Turkish citizens being kidnapped in Lebanon, it is even supposed to justify these kidnaps. Isn't this the shortest way that will lead Lebanon to obtain a permanent membership in the failed states club? Pushing Lebanon into turmoil will not be useful by any means for the Syrian regime and its allies. In other words, the Syrian regime can't blackmail anybody through Lebanon, particularly the Gulf states. That is the fact that seems to be invisible to the Syrian regime, the top officials in Iran and Hezbollah which stands behind "the military wing" of al-Miqdad clan, a clan that was known before of sharing good relations with all the segments and sects of the Lebanese society. The real problem of the Syrian regime is with the Syrians themselves not the Lebanese. The core of this problem is that the regime and its allies still refuse to acknowledge that there is a true revolution taking place in Syria, and that the current ruling regime has no chance to survive, as Syria along with Lebanon will no more remain an Iranian colony, that is the core of the problem and all other issues are just details. However, some of these details can be very important, especially if they affect a small country like Lebanon, which suffers a lot from the reactions of the ruling bodies in both Damascus and Tehran.  These bodies refuse to admit the real situation in Syria, which tells that this country has changed and its people will never step back. Those people are keen on regaining their freedom and  dignity, as well as getting rid of the servile life imposed on them by a regime that spent more than half a century in enslaving the people under the cover of anti-occupation struggle and anti-imperialism policies. Does the Syrian regime think that the Syrians are that fool to believe that the anti-occupation struggle will be led by a regime which never mastered anything bar exploiting the Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian causes for reaching its own interests. What happened in Lebanon in the last few days is serious, actually very serious. These events showed that both the Syrian and Iranian regimes are seeing Lebanon as their own colony. Maybe that is the reason that pushed Hezbollah's leader Sayed Hassan Narallah in his latest speech to describe the Lebanese state as "the Lebanese arena". He said openly in a clear threat to all the Lebanese people and the foreign citizens in Lebanon that "this arena" has gone out of control. Nasrallah could have been referring to the latest move conducted by the Lebanese security with the arrest of the former minister and MP Michel Samaha, who is known to be a close figure to President Bashar al-Assad. He might have warned against the possibility of revealing that the explosives smuggled by Samaha were handed to him by top security officials in Syria. It seems like he believes that Lebanon should remain under control of both the Syrian and Iranian regimes, and this control means that the "Lebanese arena" has to be a threat directed at the Arabs in general and the Gulf states in particular, despite the fact that these states have always been generous to Lebanon and its people under all circumstances. Lebanon is expected to endure a lot of suffering in the next few days and weeks due to the Syrian-Iranian attack, but this attack will never change reality, and the reality is that the Syrian regime has fallen, and this fall will be reflected only in positive results for both the Lebanese and the Syrians too. What is more important, is that the Iranian regime will sooner or later realise that the Lebanese will never accept Beirut to be an Iranian port on the Mediterranean. Iran will realise that Beirut is a Lebanese and Arabian city but not Iranian. This city has struggled before against the Israeli occupation as well as the Syrian attempts of controlling and humiliating its people throughout three decades. Why does Iran refuse to learn the lessons taught earlier to the Syrian regime in Lebanon? Didn't they see the Lebanese driving the Syrian troops out of their country although nobody was expecting this to happen? That scene should be a sufficient reason for them to reconsider their strategy in Lebanon and to realise that this strategy will never do them or the Syrian regime any good, however, it will only stir sectarian tension and a massive crises in the small country. -- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.